In my opinion, there are only two factors that really vary from election to election: how independents break and the strength of each party in the electorate. I think it is too early to get a clear sense of the latter factor, so my focus for now is on the independents, who so far have given no indication that they’ll be supporting the Democrats. All of the generic ballot polls that have come out since last Friday – Newsweek, Rasmussen, Gallup, and now ABC News/WaPo – have produced Republican leads among independents larger than what was seen in 1994, this despite the fact that they vary wildly in terms of their final spreads. If these trends continue, the GOP will take better than 3/5ths of all independents.Don't get cocky. Get out there! Find a candidate that you like and volunteer on their campaign. If you're in Missouri's Third Congressional District (south St. Louis city down to St. Genevieve), Ed Martin (R) could use your help!
Thursday, October 7, 2010
The Weekly Standard's Jay Cost has some thoughts on recent Congressional polling: