Showing posts with label Bueno de Mesquita. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Bueno de Mesquita. Show all posts

Friday, July 1, 2011

Hugo Chavez's Cancer Could Foster Venezuelan Power Struggle

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Military and civilian allies of Venezuela's convalescent President Hugo Chavez insisted on Friday he was still running the OPEC oil-producing nation despite his prolonged absence in Cuba for the removal of a cancerous tumor.

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One source close to the Venezuelan medical team that is following Chavez's recovery said the diagnosis had revealed a cancer that required aggressive treatment that could take several months. A wing of the Caracas Military Hospital was being prepared to receive him when he returns, the source said.

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita in The Logic of Political Survival (h/t EconTalk) has this to say about the the health problems of autocrats like Chavez (p. 312):

Leaders, however, cannot promise to continue the flow of private goods to their supporters beyond their own death. Once it is known that a leader is terminally ill, supporters are aware that their access to private goods is about to dry up. This breaks the loyalty norm and ends the incumbency advantage. This means that political deposition is likely to precede anticipated death or infirmity...

Here's hoping for a speedy transfer of power!

Friday, April 3, 2009

Bruce Bueno de Mesquita

Instapundit links to an article about the predictions of Bruce Bueno de Mesquita. Russ Roberts first introduced me to Bueno de Mesquita a few years ago in this EconTalk podcast interview: The Political Economy of Power. It's a long interview with Bueno de Mesquita at an hour-and-a-half, but I've listened to that one interview three or four times. Bueno de Mesquita has participated in several other EconTalk podcasts. The first one is still my favorite.
I started reading Bueno de Mesquita's book, The Logic of Political Survival. It's a dense read with a health serving of mathematics. I've set it aside for now, but will return to it when I can put more time into reading it. Here it is: