Showing posts with label china. Show all posts
Showing posts with label china. Show all posts

Monday, December 26, 2011

How can an Insolvent China Bailout Europe?

ZeroHedge: China Insolvency Wave Begins As Nation's Biggest Provincial Borrowers "Defer" Loan Payments:

...here are the facts, from China Daily, and they speaks for themselves: "China's biggest provincial borrowers are deferring payment on their loans just two months after the country's regulator said some local government companies would be allowed to do so....Hunan Provincial Expressway Construction Group is delaying payment on 3.11 billion yuan in interest, documents governing the securities show this month. Guangdong Provincial Communications Group Co, the second-largest debtor, is following suit. So are two others among the biggest 11 debtors, for a total of 30.16 billion yuan, according to bond prospectuses from 55 local authorities that have raised money in capital markets since the beginning of November." So not even two months in and companies are already becoming serial defaulters, pardon, "loan payment deferrers?" And China is supposed to bail out the world? Ironically, in a world in which can kicking is now an art form, China will show everyone just how it is done, by effectively upturning the capital structure and saying that paying interest is, well, optional. In the immortal words of the comrade from Georgia, "no coupon, no problem."

Much has been made in the press of China bailing out Europe. I don't see how that's possible when China is dealing with its own default.

Thursday, October 20, 2011

Gov. Jay Nixon Changes His Tune on Trade with China

Midwest Democracy Project: Nixon not so bullish on China trade when running for governor:

In his 2008 campaign for governor against Republican Kenny Hulshof, Nixon said Hulshof’s support for improved trade relations resulted in thousands of Missourians losing their jobs when companies shifted production to Asia.

Nixon said that was the result of unfair trade deals.

“When Missouri jobs get shipped overseas, it hurts Missouri families. It hurts Missouri’s small businesses. It hurts Missouri’s communities,” Nixon said in a speech in Springfield that year.

Of course, Gov. Nixon called a special session to implement his central plans for an air cargo hub at Lambert-St. Louis Airport. The goal of the China Hub or "Aerotropolis" legislation is to facilitate trade with China. So in 2008 Nixon's view was that trade with China hurt Missouri families, small businesses, and communities. Today, he advocates for the China Hub legislation claiming that it will create jobs.

What will his position be tomorrow?

Monday, September 26, 2011

Jay Nixon's Central Plans Unravel in Moberly Missouri

St. Louis Post Dispatch: Chinese sweetener deal turns sour in Moberly:
By now, the SweetO plant on the edge of town was supposed to be up and running. It was supposed to be pumping out high-grade artificial sweetener by the truckload, paying nearly 200 people making $17.50 an hour, and serving as Exhibit A of how foreign — Chinese — investment could bring new life deep into the Missouri heartland.
Instead, the half-built plant sits idle, and the city could be on the hook for $39 million of the company's bad debt.
The collapse of the Mamtek deal has created problems in Jefferson City for politicians who supported this boondoggle. Chief among them is Missouri's Governor: Jay Nixon. The governor's official website touts the Mamtek deal and the 600 jobs it was suppose to create in the struggling town of Moberly. The announcement a year ago also includes this now ironic quote from Jay Nixon:
"At a time when too many American companies are shuttering their plants and moving jobs overseas, we are thrilled to have a global company creating hundreds of good manufacturing jobs right here in Missouri," Gov. Nixon said.  "These jobs will be a significant boost to Missouri's economy and our manufacturing sector, and they're another positive sign that our economy is beginning to move forward.  I am pleased that my administration was able to provide a competitive package of strategic economic incentives to help bring these jobs to Missouri."
Obviously, the absence of those jobs combined with an additional $39 million of debt will sadly extend the economic woes of Moberly. Missouri's state-level leadership needs to re-evaluate their economic principals, because they are making the same mistakes that cargo cult Keynesians at the Federal level are making. They are committing the fatal conceit which Hayek illuminated in this quote: "The curious task of economics is to demonstrate to men how little they really know about what they imagine they can design."
“Substantial concerns have arisen regarding the entity known as Mamtek International Ltd. and its proposed construction and operation of a manufacturing facility in Missouri,” Koster said. “The Attorney General’s Office is assisting Prosecuting Attorney Mike Fusselman and the Randolph County Prosecuting Attorney’s Office in reviewing this matter to determine whether any violations of Missouri civil or criminal laws have occurred. Our review of this matter will begin immediately.”
And Mamtek may have other casualties. The Source casts doubt on the pending Aerotropolis legislation in Jefferson City could be one victim:
...Nixon’s administration screwed the pooch so poorly with this China deal, can we really trust that he knows what he’s talking about when it comes to the China Hub project in St. Louis?
The stress of these deals is weighing on Nixon too. He appeared to lose it when talking with reporters last week:
Adding to Gov. Nixon's headaches is this report from the Columbia Tribune that Mamtek was suppose to entice Chinese investors to apply for a special EB-5 visa:
Mamtek US Inc. highlighted a little-known U.S. visa program as an added enticement to lure Chinese investors for the failed effort to build a taxpayer-subsidized artificial sweetener factory in Moberly.
On a Chinese-language investor website, Mamtek sought 15 people willing to put $500,000 each into the project. In return, investors would receive an EB-5 visa from the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Service, good for bringing themselves and their entire immediate family — up to three generations — to the United States.
I think the US (and Missouri) should provide incentives for international entrepreneurs with proven records of success to come to this country. That's one realization of the American dream. The problem with Mamtek, is that it looks a bit too much like it was nothing, but a front for the Mamtek Regional Center. The Mamtek Regional Center is listed on the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services website as Missouri's only "Immigrant Investor Regional Center" (here's a screen grab):
Mamtek_uscis_immigrant_investo

Tuesday, September 20, 2011

Don't Expect China to Bailout Europe

Just last week the Financial Times was reporting: Italy turns to China for help in debt crisis:

Italy’s centre-right government is turning to cash-rich China in the hope that Beijing will help rescue it from financial crisis by making “significant” purchases of Italian bonds and investments in strategic companies.
Yesterday, Reuters reported: S&P cuts Italy ratings one notch, outlook negative:
Sept 20 (Reuters) - Standard and Poor's downgraded its unsolicited ratings on Italy by one notch to A/A-1 and kept its outlook on negative, a major surprise that threatens to add to concerns of contagion in the debt-stressed euro zone.
It seems odd to me that Third World China would be bailing out First World Italy, but if they were close to a deal, the ratings cut on Italy gives China an excuse to walk away.

Tuesday, September 13, 2011

Will #Aerotropolis Let Us Outsource Our Children to Overseas Nannies?

The Onion: Many U.S. Parents Outsourcing Child Care Overseas:

Due to rising domestic wages, many American parents are saving money by using unregulated overseas workers.

If proponents of the aerotropolis legislation pending in Jefferson City had argued that Missouri parents could outsource their child rearing responsibilities to a better qualified Chinese "Tiger Mother", legislative victory might actually be assured. However, they have instead argued that the airplanes used to bring cutting edge electronics to St. Louis would return to the People's Republic with beef cattle. The St. Louis to Shenzhen beef trade has always been, well, a red herring. As the Show Me Institute has documented, beef is ineligible for export to China, so those winged cattle-cars will have to steer clear of the Middle Kingdom.

Saturday, June 11, 2011

China Rating Agency Warns of US Default

Yahoo! News: China ratings house says US defaulting:

A Chinese ratings house has accused the United States of defaulting on its massive debt, state media said Friday, a day after Beijing urged Washington to put its fiscal house in order.

I think that China is not so much lending us money as they are purchasing future foreign policy concessions. I guess their rating agencies have to pretend otherwise.

Tuesday, May 10, 2011

Ed Martin talks about the St. Louis Aerotropolis


After asking Ed Martin about his decision to run for Congress in Missouri's 2nd Congressional District, I asked him about aerotropolis. That's the proposal to expand Lambert airport to be an international air trade hub with China as our main trading partner. Funding for this project would come mainly in the form of tax credits and Federal grants.

Sunday, November 7, 2010

The entire Western world has for voted itself a lifestyle it is not willing to pay for

Kevin Libin examines the connection that Mark Steyn makes between demographics and our economy:
For one, [Mark] believes [the] latest economic crisis represents “the first great demographic recession.” The scheme of Western nations to gorge on entitlement programs financed by debt to be paid for by children that, diminishing birth rates prove will not materialize, is rapidly unravelling.

“The entire Western world has for some time now voted itself a lifestyle it is not willing to pay for,” he says. The riots in Greece and France are the refusal of those societies to give up their freebies. In the United States, the interest payments on public debt borrowed from Beijing will in just five years be so large as to finance the entire budget of the Red Army which, it so happens, is becoming increasingly muscular in challenging American dominance in the Indian and Pacific oceans and the sea routes to the Middle East.

“This is the most ridiculous moment in global history where the dying empire is, in effect, funding the dominance of the would-be successor power.”
While I like Steyn's directness, I do take exception with him with respect to China. It's popular to bash China, but the fact is that they're no longer the main purchaser of our debt:

MAJOR FOREIGN HOLDERS OF TREASURY SECURITIES
                                                 (in billions of dollars)
                                               HOLDINGS 1/ AT END OF PERIOD


                       Aug     Jul     Jun     May     Apr     Mar     Feb     Jan     Dec     Nov     Oct     Sep     Aug
Country               2010    2010    2010    2010    2010    2010    2010    2010    2009    2009    2009    2009    2009
                     ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------  ------

China, Mainland       868.4   846.7   843.7   867.7   900.2   895.2   877.5   889.0   894.8   929.0   938.3   938.3   936.5
Japan                 836.6   821.0   803.6   786.7   795.5   784.9   768.5   765.4   765.7   754.3   742.9   747.9   727.5
United Kingdom 2/     448.4   374.3   362.2   350.0   321.2   279.0   233.5   208.3   180.3   155.5   108.1   126.8   104.3

Follow the link above for information about other foreign holders of US bonds. The key points from the data above are that between Aug 2009 and Aug 2010:

  1. China's holdings decreased by $68B
  2. Japan's holdings increased by $109B
  3. The United Kingdom's holdings increased an astounding $344B

Obviously, China still holds more of our debt ($868.4B) than the second largest foreign investor in US Treasuries, Japan ($836.6B). Perhaps China's unwilling to be the first nation to own $1T or more of our debt and they're just waiting for someone else to cross that line before buying more. I don't know.

If you look at the bottom line figure for all foreign investors, you might be surprised to learn that between Aug 2009 and Aug 2010 they only acquired about $82B of our debt. Obviously, we ran massive deficits that exceeded $82B by at least $1T during that time frame, so who financed them?

The Fed and by extension our children.

Friday, October 1, 2010

US Is 'Practically Owned' by China

CNBC quotes an analyst who says:
'America is practically owned by China,' he said.
He's wrong. China's stake in US Treasuries has fallen over the past year. Over the past two years, China's holdings of US debt have remained flat. They may be putting some of their US dollars to work on Wall Street—I haven't seen numbers on that—but the economic downturn combined with their steady position in treasuries leads me to believe that their just treading water.

Thursday, May 27, 2010

Incentives Matter: Suicides at Foxconn's iPad Factory

There have been a dozen suicides at the Foxconn factory where Apple's iPad and iPod are manufactured. The incentive structure in place means that Foxconn cannot stop the suicides:
Foxconn finds itself in the position of paying 110,000 yuan (£11,000) in compensation to every person who jumps. For a depressed Foxconn employee, who still feels an obligation to repay his family for the cost of his or her upbringing and who would like to give his parents a lump sum that could transform their lives, this is a very tempting sum.

For a worker on the basic rate of 900 yuan a month, the compensation amounts to the equivalent of over ten years of gross salary. For a worker who is doing overtime and earning 1500 yuan a month, the compensation is still worth six years of salary.

If these enormous payments don’t stop, the suicides are unlikely to either.
Even in China, you get what you pay for and that's why incentives matter.

Sunday, November 22, 2009

China and the US Debt

Dougas Holtz-Eakin in the WSJ on The Coming Deficit Disaster: "And how will the resulting higher interest rates, diminished dollar, higher inflation, and economic distress manifest itself?" I've said before that China is not buying our debt, rather, China is purchasing future foreign policy concessions. They will eventually offer us debt forgiveness. And we will recognize they're sovereign claims to Taiwan and Tibet... maybe even give them a carrier battle group or three.

Saturday, October 10, 2009

Similarities between the USSR and the US

Eric S. Raymond sees similarities between our current predicament and the collapse of the USSR in the post uncivil society and the collapse of the nomenklatura:
A few moments ago, I read a review of a new book, Uncivil Society: 1989 and the Implosion of the Communist Establishment, and the following sentences jumped out at me:
This is less a story of dissidents, so-called civil society, than of the bankruptcy of a ruling class–communism’s establishment, or “uncivil society.” The Communists borrowed from the West like drunken sailors to buy mass consumer goods, then were unable to pay back the hard-currency debts and so borrowed even more. In Eastern Europe, communism came to resemble a Ponzi scheme, one whose implosion carries enduring lessons.
...democratic politics must more or less inevitably degenerate into a mad scramble among interest groups seeking to corner ever-higher rents from their ability to swing votes; see my previous post Some Iron Laws of Political Economics for discussion. So, where does it end? Increasingly, it looks like the answer is “when the creditors of the resulting Ponzi scheme decide they’ve had enough”.

Under today’s conditions, given who’s holding the biggest wad of T-bonds, that decision will probably be made in Peking.
Whew, it's a "good" thing we've got stuff China wants! If third world China provides first world America with a little debt forgiveness then we can send them:
  • Aircraft carrier battle groups
  • The Dalai Lama
  • Recognition of China's claims to Formosa (aka: Taiwan) and Tibet
(Note: I'm not advocating this. I'm pointing out that the bills will come due and China's not going to accept a massively debased currency.)

Thursday, May 28, 2009

Geithner to China

Glenn Reynolds notes a NYT article about Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner going to China. The NYT editorializes:
Perhaps the chief issue facing global markets is the extent to which China will continue investing heavily in Treasury bills. If China believes the dollar is going to decline in the future, given the ballooning United States debt, it could reduce its purchases.
Or they may want to make clear that they view their purchases of US debt as something entirely different. Perhaps they want to tell Mr. Geithner that they are purchasing future foreign policy concessions. Maybe they'll spellout what those concessions will be. What is US recognition of China's claims to Taiwan and Tibet worth? How much debt forgiveness do they have to offer for a carrier battle group?

Once those concessions are lined up, then they'll stop buying our debt.

Saturday, May 23, 2009

Bridge Jumping

Gateway Pundit links to a story about a bridge jumper in China. The man, who is deeply in debt, held up traffic for five hours by threatening to jump from a ledge. Another man climbed up to him, shook his hand, and pushed him off the ledge. The first man fell about 26 feet onto an air cushion and survived.

This reminded me of a similar incident that occurred while I lived inside The Beltway. In 1998 the DC jumper held up traffic for five hours by threatening to jump off the Wilson Bridge. Part way through the incident a local radio station which had been inundated with requests from stranded motorists finally relented and played Van Halen's Jump. After failing to talk the jumper down, DC's finest shot him with a "beanbag" bullet. The man jumped and a DC police boat picked him up and took him to the hospital.

Update: I just noticed this in the Washington Post article:
"It didn't go down perfectly, these things never do," Gainer said. "Clearly he was agitated about his life's situation. . . . The negotiators really tried to empathize with him. We came very close to this being a perfect rescue."
Got that? It was very close to being a perfect rescue. I'm sorry, but to be very close to being perfect, the incident has to over quickly, say, less than an hour, and the suicidal individual must not be shot. But let's not loose sight of the important issues like the DC police negotiator's ability to empathize with a suicidal man.

Welcome Gateway Punditeers! Have a look around. Perhaps you'll enjoy my coverage of the St Louis Tea Parties. I've got pictures from the February one, video from the Tax Day Tea Party, and both pictures and video from the Arnold Tea Party. If you're a videographer (or would like to be) please read this post. Maybe you'd prefer some snarky coverage of our financial mess. Or perhaps you want to find "common ground" with Obama in the abortion debate. Thanks for stopping by!

Sunday, April 26, 2009

Thouhgts on China

I read a few stories about China and the US debt...

Any country, especially countries that have foreign policy interests that conflict with our own, that is still buying US debt is not doing so as a financial investment. Instead, they are purchasing future foreign policy concessions. In China’s case, we will recognize their sovereign claims to Taiwan, Tibet, and various south sea islands. Perhaps we’ll help make sure that the Dalai Lama is brought to “justice” in China. Despicable.

The US need not default to precipitate these foreign policy concessions. We’ll need debt forgiveness long before we default. Third world China is going to be playing IMF/World Bank to first world America.

We owe China, in one form or another, about two trillion dollars. Interestingly, it costs about $22 billion to build a modern American aircraft carrier. If you're not shipping stuff overseas, doesn't it make sense to sell it to someone that is? What if the repo man (aka: China) asks for it? It would be nice to see someone finally call out our betters in Washington for their reckless spending, but this would be shamefully embarrassing.

Then there's the issue of servicing the US debt. Right now, that's 8% of every tax dollar sent to Washington. If we double the debt, then roughly 16 cents of every dollar going to DC will go to interest payments on the debt. I think this will contribute to a brain-drain from the US to creditor nations, but I'm not sure that such a brain-drain will be significant.

Wednesday, April 1, 2009

China Responds to Obama's Auto Bailout

President Obama's speech on Monday, inspired the leader of the People's Republic of China to offer his thoughts on the American economy. Here are Hu Jintoa's redacted remarks (emphasis added to indicate change from Obama's original text):

One of the challenges we have confronted from the beginning of the Obama administration is what to do about the state of China's struggling American economy. In recent months, my economic task force has been reviewing requests by the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury for additional Chinese assistance as well as plans developed by each of these bureaucracies to restructure, modernize, and make the United States more competitive. Our evaluation is now complete. But before I lay out what needs to be done going forward, I want to say a few words about where we are, and what led us to this point.

It will come as a surprise to no one that some of the Americans who have suffered most during this recession have been those in publicly traded firms and those working for companies that support them. Over the past year, the US economy has shed over 5,000,000 jobs, not only at the firms that create American products but at the businesses here in China that produce the parts that go into them. More than one in 20 Shanghai residents is out of work. And towns and cities across the Peoples Republic of China have watched unemployment climb higher than it's been in decades.

The pain being felt in places that rely on our export industry is not the fault of our workers, who labor tirelessly and desperately want to see their companies succeed. And it is not the fault of all the families and communities that supported manufacturing plants throughout the generations. Rather, it is a failure of leadership -- in Washington -- that led our companies to this point.

We cannot, we must not, and we will not let our export industry simply vanish. This industry is, like no other, an emblem of the Chinese spirit; a once and future symbol of China's success. It is what helped build the middle class and sustained it throughout the 20th century. It is a source of deep pride for the generations of Chinese workers whose hard work and imagination led to some of the finest plastic products the world has ever known. It is a pillar of our economy that has held up the dreams of millions of our people. But we also cannot continue to excuse poor decisions. And we cannot make the survival of our export industry dependent on an unending flow from American printing presses. These American federal agencies -- and their government -- must ultimately stand on their own, not as wards of China.

That is why China provided the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury with emergency loans to prevent the sudden collapse of the US economy -- only on the condition that they would develop plans to restructure. In keeping with that agreement, each bureaucracy has submitted a plan to restructure. But after careful analysis, we have determined that neither goes far enough to warrant the substantial new investments that these American government agencies are requesting. And so today, I am announcing that China will offer the Federal Reserve and the US Treasury a limited period of time to work with creditors, unions, and other stakeholders to fundamentally restructure in a way that would justify an additional loan; a period during which they must produce plans that would give the Chinese people confidence in their long-term prospects for success.

What we are asking is difficult. It will require hard choices. It will require public sector unions and workers who have already made painful concessions to make even more. It will require Washington to recognize that they cannot hold out for the prospect of monthly Chinese bailouts. Only then can we ask American taxpayers who have already put up so much of their hard-earned money to finally repay their countries debts. But I am confident that if we are each willing to do our part, then this restructuring, as painful as it will be for the US, will mark not an end, but a new beginning for a great American economy; reconstituted as a Chinese subsidiary that is once more out-competing the world; a 21st century vassal that is creating new jobs and unleashing new prosperity. I am absolutely committed to working with Congress, the Fed, and the US Treasury to meet one goal: the United States of America will lead the world back to sound money.

But the US economy is not moving in the right direction fast enough to succeed. So let me discuss what measures need to be taken starting with the US Treasury. While Treasury has made a good faith effort to sell bonds over the past several months, the plan they have put forward is, in its current form, not strong enough. However, after broad consultations with a range of experts and financial advisors, I'm confident that Treasury can rise again, provided that it undergoes a fundamental restructuring. As an initial step, Treasury is announcing today that Timothy Geithner is stepping aside as Secretary. This is not meant as a condemnation of Mr. Geithner, who has devoted his life to tax evasion; rather, it's a recognition that it will take a new vision and new direction to create the Treasury of the future.

The situation at the Federal Reserve is more challenging. It is with deep reluctance but also a clear-eyed recognition of the facts that we have determined, after a careful review, that the Fed needs a partner to remain viable. Recently, the Fed reached out and found what could be a potential partner -- the international car company Fiat… er… a return to the gold standard!

Monday, March 30, 2009

Hu Jintao and Tim Geithner

If the Chairman and CEO of General Motors serves at the pleasure of the American President because GM is so indebted to the US Government, does this mean that the US Treasury Secretary, Timothy Geithner, serves at the pleasure of Hu Jintao because the Chinese are the largest foreign holder of US Treasuries?

Thursday, February 26, 2009

Let Me Revise and Extend My Remarks

Tyler Cowen of Marginal Revolution made an obscure reference in a post yesterday about Social security and fiscal policy. Here's the seeming non sequitur in his post:
If I were Taiwan I'd feel a wee bit more worried these days.
Before I started blogging—late last September, to be specific—I emailed Tyler an early version of my Hu's in Trouble Post. He thanked me for the email, so I knew he had read it. I'll take the line above as confirmation that he hasn't forgotten it.

I've posted once more on China's massive underwritting of our debt to say that people that think that China will sell dollars on the open market aren't considering the other possibilities. Someone identified as "ws1835" commented on Tyler's post in part:

It was openly discussed that Clinton was begging China to keep buying Treasuries. That part wasn't news to me. The surprise for me was that the commentators openly discussed Chinese responses directly addressing the expectation of significant concessions from the USA in return for continued financing.

And when I say significant, I mean huge. There was no mention of Taiwan. The discussion cited items like troop reduction/withdrawal from S. Korea and Japan. Funny how you didn't hear about those topics from the Western press.
Given our massive and growing debt and China's strategic interests, they will continue to buy our treasuries. That they're using the mere offer to buy them as leverage is unfortunate for us, but smart for them. Here are a couple of questions to ponder:
  1. How much debt forgiveness is Formosa worth?
  2. ...Tibet?
  3. ...extradition of the Dalai Lama?
Yeah. China's going to keep buying US Treasuries, because their greatest coup will be the role reversal of playing might first world debt forgiver to a banana republic: the USA.

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

The China Debt Dump and Taiwan

The Politico (via Instapundit) reviews four really bad economic scenarios. One of those is the oft cited "debt dump":
The Chinese own more than $500 billion worth of U.S. Treasury bonds, and billons more in the debt of other U.S. entities such as those held by Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. And a general sense of mutually assured financial destruction keeps them from wielding that debt like a weapon: if the Chinese dumped U.S. debt on the global market, their own holdings of U.S. debt would decline in value, the U.S. economy would be damaged, ultimately harming the Chinese economy by reducing American ability to buy more Chinese goods.
Yeah. It's possible, but each dollar that China sold would be worth a little less than the last. That's the problem with dumping a liquid asset (USD) for another liquid asset (Chinese Yuan, gold, whatever). It would make much more sense for them to use their large debt position to buy something really expensive, like, US recognition of China's claim to Taiwan... er... Formosa.

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Hu's in Trouble?

The last capitalist we hang shall be the one who sold us the rope. — Karl Marx

Economists assure us that international trade is a good thing. I agree, and I think the advantages of trade are well described by the Ricardian model and comparative advantage. Yet, I worry that every dollar of debt we incur with China is a little more rope for them to use against us.

Here's an imagined conversation between Hu Jintao and George W. Bush to illustrate a repugnant possibility of China's vast holdings of US currency and debt instruments:
[Phone rings in Oval Office. Bush answers.]
W: This is W.
Hu: Howdy cowboy! Hu here.
W: The 2008 games... Great show, great show...
Hu: Let's cut to the chase. We've got some of your spare change we could loan you.
W: Right.
Hu: Furthermore, we've got a lot people to keep occupied. We can keep them occupied by either working in factories making McDonald's Happy Meal toys or we can muster them into armies. We like the Happy Meal gig and I think you do to.
W: Yup.
Hu: So how about you recognize our territorial claims to the island of Formosa?
W: Hmmm... You know I can't do that.
Hu: We'll burn $700B worth of US Government bonds and you'll recognize us as the rightful sovereign of that little island.
The above dialog reaches a spectacular low in (imagined and implied) moral turpitude. Unfortunately, this sort of option is going to remain on the table as long as China has significant holdings denominated in US dollars.

I don't know if we should do anything. Inaction is sometimes the best course of action. Nonetheless, the reality of the Templeton curve looms large before us. Politicians are oddly promising more spending during one of the greatest financial crises in American history. As a result, debt forgiveness will become more politically appealing.

I'd like to know how economists see this playing out. Are there similar examples from history that we can learn from? What policy changes should we consider?