Sarah Steelman: Tea Party Candidate?

Earlier this week, Sarah Steelman filed to run for US Senate in 2012 against Democrat Claire McCaskill. There's a strong presumption that former Senator Jim Talent—the man who lost to McCaskill in 2006—will also run for the Republican nomination. Talent is seen as the party favorite.

Steelman served as Missouri's Treasurer from 2005 to 2009. In 2008 she made a bid for the Governors office, but lost in the Republican primary. In a Talent v Steelman race for Republican nominee for US Senate, she would be seen as an outsider.

With that background, it's interesting to learn that the National Republican Senatorial Committee (NRSC) has apparently promised Steelman that it would not endorse Talent. Dave at Missouri Scout reports on the NRSC and Sarah Steelman (paid subscription):

The NRSC was burned last year in primaries across the country. In Colorado, Nevada, Alaska, and Maryland [I think he means Delaware - ed.], its anointed candidates lost in each primary and the eventual nominee lost each general election. In other words, the NRSC’s miscalculations (and spending on losing primary candidates) may have cost them control of the Senate.

In short, the NRSC lost money on several primary races so it looks like they plan to keep their money out of Missouri's primary in 2012. I hope they stick with that plan. You might encourage them to do the same in your state.

That said, I have to take exception with Dave for referring to Steelman as the "Tea Party favorite". Dave isn't the only reporter to do that. Jeremy Jacobs of National Journal reported on Steelman's announcement earlier this week this way:

Second, the NRSC is showing a newfound interest in Steelman, a Tea Party favorite, who it shunned last year in favor of Roy Blunt.

Since Steelman did not run in the 2010 Missouri Republican primary for US Senate, it's odd to say that the NRSC shunned her. They certainly anointed Roy, but Steelman wasn't among the candidates that were shunned. Those would be Chuck Purgason (2nd in the primary, 13%), Kristi Nichols (3rd in the primary, 7%), and several others.

I don't understand why Sarah Steelman is being referred to as the Tea Party favorite. She's not. She may be by the time the election is here, but she's not the favorite yet.

There are basically two paths to becoming a Tea Party candidate. The first path is to show up, maybe speak at events, maybe lead a local Tea Party group, recruit others, and just generally participate in the Tea Party. That's the path that Ed Martin and Gary Fuhr followed. The other path is to do something heroic, something exceptional that clearly indicates your commitment to Tea Party values. Once you've done that, you probably need to do some of the things on the first path: speak, lead, recruit, and participate. Paul Curtman followed the second path. I also think that Lt Gov Peter Kinder went above and beyond the call of duty when he brought suite against the federal government over the healthcare law.

Those are the paths to becoming a Tea Party favorite. As of today, there are no Tea Party favorites for US Senate in Missouri. I look forward to learning more about all the candidates. For now, best wishes for a successful campaign to Sarah Steelman, Jim Talent, Chuck Purgason, and Kristi Nichols (assuming the last three decide to run).

GOP Primary Debate for US Senate

Macon County Patriots and Preserving American Liberty have arranged a U.S. Senate Candidate Debate - Macon, MO August 1, 2010:

The U.S. Senate seat is vital to the future direction of America. We are co-hosting a much awaited debate between, who we believe are, the top 4 candidates of the conservative party running in Missouri's August 3rd primary election. This is an opportunity to equip Missouri voters with the information needed to choose leaders who will best represent We The People in Washington D.C.
Join us:

Sunday, August 1, 2010
4:00 to 6:00 pm sharp
Macon Expo Center
(Macon County Fairgrounds)
1303 So. Missouri St.
Macon, Missouri
Seating is limited and will be on a first come basis.

The candidates invited are:
Congressman Roy Blunt, Senator Chuck Purgason,
Hector Maldonado & Kristi Nichols

Moderator for the debate is author of The Big Black Lie, The Black Sphere and
relentless front line warrior for Liberty and Truth: Kevin Jackson.

Purgason's Primary Path

In March I attended the Senate Candidate Forum in Jeff City. Roy Blunt (R-MO) wasn't there, but most of the other Republican candidates for US Senate from Missouri were. Robin Carnahan also declined, so Roy wasn't the only big name not to show. Those with name recognition never want to acknowledge their competitors for fear of lending them credibility. That's how the game is played.

I liked Hector Maldonado the best—he's the owner of the always salient domain HectorForFreedom.com. I also thought Kristi Nichols and Chuck Purgason rounded out the top three. My informal post forum straw poll had Nichols as the favorite. The problem I have with both Maldonado and Nichols is that they lack any legislative experience. While Purgason has more legislative experience than I would prefer, all of that experience is in the Missouri House and Senate. I assume that long serving politicians develop a sense of entitlement for elected office, but I know that Purgason is committed to the idea of citizen legislators and term limits, so I can overlook his fourteen years of legislative service. (Complete video interview.)

Since March, Purgason has recruited a volunteer base and added some staff; had his website redesigned; gained national attention when he announced he would no longer wear a wig; gained the endorsements of the Jefferson County Tea Party, fellow GOP US Senate Candidate Jim Schmidt when Schmidt dropped out, and now Joe the Plumber. However, Purgason's path to a primary victory on August 3rd is a long one.

Let's take a look back with this bit from Bill Hennessy:

It would be nice if a national pollster would check on Blunt vs. Purgason. The last poll of that primary race was in March and Blunt led 48 to 18 percent. Again, though, Purgason seems to have caught a bit of a tailwind in recent weeks, at least in the St. Louis area.

With support of only 48% of the GOP base in March, Blunt is beatable, but Purgason has to secure the lion's share of that other 34% while also eroding Blunt's lead.

I believe that Purgason's strategy should be to focus on securing the endorsements of his other primary opponents. While an endorsement from a national figure like Sarah Palin would immediately put Purgason in the lead, I doubt that such endorsements are forthcoming. Nonetheless, David Cantanese of Politico reports that Purgason's people are talking with Palin:

Despite Palin's financial support for Blunt, Purgason's not giving up on netting an endorsement from the former vice presidential nominee.

"I've talked with some of her people recently," he said. "She's a very thorough person and [sic] she's looking at some of the things I voted on. I think she'll have a decision in the near future."

"She gave him money. She has not endorsed," Purgason emphasized. "We'd love to have Gov. Palin on board."

Roy Blunt is in the Republican leadership of the US House of Representatives. Until last year, he was the Republican whip. I would be surprised to see endorsements from nationally recognized GOP figures on the because of the potential risk to the endorser's political capital.

Therefore, Purgason has to convince Maldonado, Nichols, and the other GOP candidates to dropout and endorse him. Schmidt has blazed this trail and is setting an example by volunteering on Purgason's campaign. Maldonado and Nichols are great candidates who will have successful political careers in the future. Bob Praprotnik, Deborah Solomon, Davis Conway, Mike Vontz, and Tony Laszacs may distinguish themselves in future races, but I believe that the greatest contribution that each of them can make to the conservative cause today is to rally to the flag of Chuck Purgason.

As the field narrows, Purgason's conservative credentials will distinguish him from Roy Blunt's votes for TARP, Cash for Clunkers, the Medicare expansion, federal involvement in local education (No Child Left Behind), and ethanol mandates. When I've challenged Blunt supporters on these issues, they always respond that Blunt's got the money to challenge Carnahan in the Fall and Purgason doesn't. If you're voting in the GOP primary on August 3rd, you need to decide whether you want to vote for Purgason's principals or Blunt's war chest.