Instapundit links to an article about the predictions of Bruce Bueno de Mesquita. Russ Roberts first introduced me to Bueno de Mesquita a few years ago in this EconTalk podcast interview: The Political Economy of Power. It's a long interview with Bueno de Mesquita at an hour-and-a-half, but I've listened to that one interview three or four times. Bueno de Mesquita has participated in several other EconTalk podcasts. The first one is still my favorite.
I started reading Bueno de Mesquita's book, The Logic of Political Survival. It's a dense read with a health serving of mathematics. I've set it aside for now, but will return to it when I can put more time into reading it. Here it is: