Tuesday, September 21, 2010

Another Bogus Poll from Robin Carnahan

Back in August, Robin Carnahan (D-MO) was touting a poll that showed her tied 48-48 with Roy Blunt (R-MO). The demographic breakdown of that poll was 63% women to 37% men, so I tweeted the following:
@RobinCarnahan is tied with @RoyBlunt 48-48 http://bit.ly/akwwVf Congrats, Robin! What's your strategy for 63% women voters on 11/2?
24thState.com brings news that the polling situation for Robin Carnahan has not improved:
The Missouri Democratic Party is touting a new poll from Global Strategies Group claiming a statistical dead heat with Roy Blunt. Without having access to the anything other than the toplines, it would be difficult to say that the poll is accurate, but it does show Blunt with a 4% lead when leaners are included (which they should be, this close to the election).
I disagree with Editor on this one. Any topline that shows Jerry Beck (Constitution Party-MO) and Jonathan Dine (L-MO) pulling 3% each isn't credible in my opinion. The 2006 MO Senate race between Jim Talent (R-MO) and Claire McCaskill (D-MO) saw 96.9% of the vote go to the two candidates from the Republican and Democrat parties. Beck and Dine are fighting over three or four percent total between them. The poll has an error range of +/-4, but I maintain that those two were included in the poll to bring down Roy Blunt's numbers.

Editor points out another problem with the poll:
...it's important to know who exactly the Dems are getting in bed with. GSG was recently smacked on the hand with a $2 million fine for a pay-to-play scheme in New York. GSG is also the firm started by Steve Rattner, Obama's auto czar, who had to leave the position over the rumors caused by GSG's missteps. If the Missouri Democratic Party wants to brag that their internal polling is done by Global Strategies Group, a powerful New York firm referred to no less than the New York Times as "one of New York’s top consultants to corporations and other special interests," by all means run their pretty little press releases.

I'm sure connecting the Missouri Democratic Party to corruption, powerful special interests, and New York politicians like Elliot Spitzer is all in Ryan Hobart's game plan.

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