Monday, July 13, 2009

Unemployment Speculation

Keith Hennessy writes:
He’s right that [the stimulus] will help, eventually. If the July employment report due on August 7th returns us to the prior slow but steady recovery path, the President might only have to worry about 6-9 months of economic and political pain. But if the July report shows that the June report is a new downward trend, then policymakers will have a more serious problem to address.
I believe that companies have been accelerating their purchases of labor because of the minimum wage hike coming on July 24th. Therefore, I expect the July employment numbers to look (relatively) good and the administration and media to promote them. I also expect the August (or maybe September) numbers to be worse than projected.

So, to answer Jennifer Rubin's related question: When Do We Get That Job ‘Surge’? This is it!


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