Saturday, July 16, 2011

Economic and Political Uncertainty in 2012

James Pethokoukis of Reuters.com noted the following quote in a Goldman Sachs press release that went out Friday night:

...we now expect the unemployment rate to come down only modestly to 8¾% at the end of 2012.

...But the slowdown of recent months goes well beyond what can be explained with these temporary effects. … final demand growth has slowed to a pace that is typically only seen in recessions.

Pethokoukis believes that that will make re-election for President Obama impossible. Zerohedge found this laugh line in the Goldman forecast:

The “bugbear” is that we are still unsure about the precise reasons for the slowdown in 2011 to date, which is sharply at odds with our expectation at the end of last year that growth would accelerate in 2011.

So the smart people haven't got a clue! It should be clear that we need is less centralization (Keynes) and more emergent order (Hayek), but this too will be spun into arguments for more centralization.

...no matter what happens this week, or at 11:59:59pm on August 2, the long-term fate of the world's premier entitlement state is one which ends in disaster, and if history is any indication: war... Only this time everyone has the same just as destructive toys.

1 comment:

culturecrash said...

There’s been war talk a lot lately regarding the condition of the economy and I think it’s probable. And it won’t matter if it’s on the Democrat’s or Republican’s watch.

This lady presents an impressive case. “Recovery? Recession? No. Depression” http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gtt51AMNjWg