Friday, July 30, 2010

Purgason v Carnahan Poll

I just got this from the Purgason campaign:

National Pollster Shows Chuck Leading Carnahan by 12 Points

Respected national polling agency Magellan Strategies has just released a poll showing State Senator Chuck Purgason as the clear favorite in November’s Senate race. The poll, which questioned 1234 registered voters in the state of Missouri, found that 56% preferred Chuck Purgason over expected Democratic nominee Robin Carnahan who received only 44% of the vote. The poll had a margin of error of only +/-2.79% and a confidence interval of 95%.

The poll was balanced, made up of 37% Republicans, 37% Democrats, and 26% Independent voters. Purgason bested Carnahan in every age group, as well as among men, women, and independent voters. All the data accumulated indicates that Missouri will be a safe Republican seat in the fall when Purgason moves on to the General Election.

This poll stands in sharp contrast to all recent polling on the Missouri Senate race which shows the state as a toss up. Just three days ago, Rassmussen released a poll showing Purgason's main opponent Roy Blunt leading in the race against Carnahan by only 6% with a +/- 4% margin of error and 95% confidence interval. In the Rasmussen Poll Blunt only garnered 49% of the total vote. This data reveals that if Blunt were to win the Republican nomination, the party would be in danger of losing the seat to Democrat Robin Carnahan.

When asked to respond to the poll, State Senator Purgason responded, "I'm not surprised with the results at all. Missourians are tired of these political dynasties. Integrity really does matter."
I sincerely believe that Purgason will have an easier path to victory in November than will Roy Blunt (R-MO). While this poll confirms my own bias, I have some concerns. The straight-up numbers for Chuck Purgason (R-MO) v. Robin Carnahan (D-MO), 56 to 44, tell me that Carnahan's upper limit is 44 and that "other" and "undecided" poll results rolled into Purgason. The pollster, Magellan Strategies, probably insisted each person polled choose either Purgason or Carnahan. Still, this is very good news for the Purgason campaign.


Fran said...

No wonder Michele Bachmann was sick today!

dsm said...



Seriously, though, Michele was hospitalized Friday. Say a prayer for a full and quick recovery that she might continue the fight for conservatism in DC.