Patrick Brennan (R) is running in a special election to fill the seat vacated by Jake Zimmerman (D). While the district leans left, Brennan has two things going for him. First, there will be lower turnout because this is a special election, so he has to activate the conservative base to win. Second, two democrats are running so the liberal vote will be split creating an advantage for Brennan.
The election will be held November 8th.