But with so many promising Republican challengers this year, a bunch of potential upsets are flying well under the radar. And with the political environment going from bad to worse for Democrats, it is increasingly likely the night of November 2 will include some winners that almost no one saw coming. If you’re searching for some of these long shots who are looking shorter these days, here is a dirty baker’s dozen of GOP challengers to keep an eye on. They’re underfunded, unrecognized, rarely mentioned, and given no chance and they may just win anyway.There are a lot more reasons for Ed Martin to pickup this seat. Russ Carnahan (D-MO) just isn't a very good candidate. To put it charitably, he neglects his constituents. For example, Carnahan refused to take my question at the end of a healthcare forum last summer; his staff denied me my first amendment press freedom; and they did the same to Sharp, too.
1. Ed Martin vs. Russ Carnahan, Missouri’s 3rd District.
Reasons the challenger should have no chance: It’s a D+7 district on the Cook Partisan Voting Index. Russ Carnahan won with 66 percent of the vote in 2004. The Carnahan name is supposed to be magic in Missouri politics, and his sister Robin is running for Senate.
Reasons the challenger has a chance: Robin Carnahan’s lousy polling indicates that the family name doesn’t carry the weight it once did. The St. Louis Post-Dispatch has already declared that Martin is “giving Carnahan the toughest general election campaign of his congressional career.” A recent poll puts Martin within striking distance, 39 percent to 48 percent.
Then there's the stuff he says: "...over ten years [healthcare reform] will create a six billion dollar surplus..." or this old saw: "my door is always open."
His habitual abuse of power also works against him: a lobbyist funded trip to the Great Barrier Reef, $90 million dollar earmark to his brother's wind farm, using campaign contributions to pay himself, and dodging personal property taxes in St. Louis. It's not surprising to me that Ed Martin posses a threat. It's surprising that Democrats overwhelmingly backed the corruptocrat Carnahan in the recent primary. Incumbency helped that happen which is why I have long felt that legislators should not be allowed to serve consecutive terms.