24thState Gets Results

Hotline On Call is reporting that the DSCC Moving Money Out of Missouri:

The DSCC is moving TV ad money out of Missouri, a sign that the Senate race may be moving beyond Democrats' grasp.

Four Republican sources who monitor media buying and three Missouri TV stations have confirmed to Hotline On Call that the DSCC has canceled reservations from Oct. 11 to Oct. 25. The DSCC still has reservations in Missouri for the last week before Election Day.

Clearly Sir Robin Carnahan's appearance alongside brother Russ over at 24thState.com doomed her election... or maybe it was her silencing of Green Jobs Man. Can Russ's electoral prospects be that far behind?

Russ Carnahan is Vulnerable

Ooops! The black baby butchers tipped their hand: NARAL Pro-Choice America PAC Sends $100,000 to Candidates in Competitive House Races:

The PAC‘s contributions include $5,000 each to the general-election campaigns of the following pro-choice incumbents: Reps. Russ Carnahan in Missouri’s 3rd District; Phil Hare in Illinois’ 17th District...

They list several other incumbents, but I think Adam "Jackpot Brother" Sharp would be proud that his top two targets are listed first among the Congressional candidates that NARAL believes to be vulnerable. Nice work, Sharp!

Get out there!

The midterm elections are upon us. It's time to move beyond the Tea Parties and take an active role in getting conservatives elected. Congressional campaigns are busy calling voters and canvasing neighborhoods. Go volunteer on one this weekend! If you're in the St. Louis area, Robyn Hamlin and Ed Martin could use your help or you could volunteer at the St Louis Tea Party headquarters. Over on the western side of Missouri, Vicky Hartzler is in a tight race against Ike Skelton and Jacob Turk has an uphill battle in Kansas City.

Polling News from Rasmussen and Gallup

Rasmussen's latest poll of the Missouri Senate has Roy Blunt in the lead:

The latest Rasmussen Reports statewide telephone survey of Likely Voters shows Blunt picking up 51% of the vote, while Carnahan, Missouri’s current secretary of state, draws 43% support. Three percent (3%) prefer some other candidate, and two percent (2%) are undecided.

Meanwhile, Gallup is reporting that the views of the GOP's ability to govern is similar to 1994 and 2006:

Polling on voters' 2010 vote intentions suggests Republicans are within range of taking back control of the U.S. House of Representatives and possibly the Senate. This is surely attributable to the decline in Americans' perceptions of the Democratic Party in recent years, although this has not been accompanied by a surge in positive perceptions of the GOP. Heading into the elections, Americans view both parties about equally unfavorably. This is yet another indication that potential Republican gains may not indicate a Republican mandate as much as a rejection of the Democrats.

That sounds about right. I think we could turn that into a winning campaign slogan: Vote Republican—they suck less!

Incentives Matter: Savings

Andrew Stuttaford in National Review Online's The Corner on encouraging people to save more: "To what extent would the means testing of social security (and Medicare) entitlements operate as a disincentive to save? Quite a bit, I reckon." I'd have to agree.

Jay Cost's Take on Recent Polls

The Weekly Standard's Jay Cost has some thoughts on recent Congressional polling:

In my opinion, there are only two factors that really vary from election to election: how independents break and the strength of each party in the electorate. I think it is too early to get a clear sense of the latter factor, so my focus for now is on the independents, who so far have given no indication that they’ll be supporting the Democrats. All of the generic ballot polls that have come out since last Friday – Newsweek, Rasmussen, Gallup, and now ABC News/WaPo – have produced Republican leads among independents larger than what was seen in 1994, this despite the fact that they vary wildly in terms of their final spreads. If these trends continue, the GOP will take better than 3/5ths of all independents.

Don't get cocky. Get out there! Find a candidate that you like and volunteer on their campaign. If you're in Missouri's Third Congressional District (south St. Louis city down to St. Genevieve), Ed Martin (R) could use your help!

Middle Class Spending Slows

The Wall Street Journal reports that the American middle class has slammed the brakes on spending:

Middle-class Americans made their deepest spending cuts in more than two decades, slashing spending on such discretionary items as restaurant meals and alcohol during the recession.

Households in the middle fifth of the population sliced their average annual spending to $41,150 in 2009, the Labor Department said Tuesday in its annual spending breakdown. That was down 3.1% from 2007 and 3.5% from 2008, the steepest one-year drop since records began in 1984. The drop came even as those households' after-tax income remained relatively stable over the two years, at an average $45,199.

With spending down, it's no wonder that there have been a lot of job losses, but then we learn that the poor are the hardest hit:

Meanwhile, the poorest Americans spent more as prices for necessities like food and rental housing climbed. Spending rose 5.6% from 2007 to 2009 for the poorest fifth of consumers, the most of any other income group, despite a 5.5% drop in after-tax income to an average $9,956 a household. In some cases, elderly people and others with low incomes dipped into savings or relied on credit to get by.

Pragmatic Tea Parties

The Wall Street Journal reports on pragmatism in the nation's Tea Parties:

The Federation of Virginia Tea Party Patriots helped push legislation through the Virginia Statehouse earlier this year to blunt the impact of the new federal health-care law. It is now allying with like-minded lawmakers to champion an ambitious roster of bills.

In a show of strength, the group will host a two-day policy convention starting Friday in Richmond that looks set to be the largest state tea-party gathering of its kind to date.

Potential Blow-out

The Washington Examiner looks at Gallup’s astonishing numbers:

Gallup also shows the results for two different turnout models. Under its “high turnout model” Republicans lead 53%-40%. Under its “low turnout model” Republicans lead 56%-38%.

These two numbers, if translated into popular votes in the 435 congressional districts, suggest huge gains for Republicans and a Republican House majority the likes of which we have not seen since the election cycles of 1946 or even 1928.

In my own re-phrasing of the Instapundit: Don't get cocky. Get out there! Find a campaign that you support and phone bank for them or canvas or stuff envelops. In short, get out there.

Roy Blunt Signs the Tea Party Treaty

Roy Blunt, Republican candidate for the US Senate from Missouri, visited the St. Louis Tea Party office in south St. Louis city Monday. In this video, he speaks about government jobs vs private sector jobs and the growth of government spending under the Obama administration before then signing the Tea Party Treaty.