Saturday, December 15, 2012

Climate Data Show Alarmist Trend

The draft of the next IPCC report, AR5, is now available online. The graph above is Figure 1.4 from that draft report. It shows the projected upper and lower temperature anomaly bands over time for the four previous reports: FAR, SAR, TAR, and AR4. The black candlestick marks plot the observational data--the ground truth against which all climate models should be judged.

Watts Up With That notes that this caption accompanies the graph above:
Estimated changes in the observed globally and annually averaged surface temperature (in °C) since 1990 compared with the range of projections from the previous IPCC assessments. Values are aligned to match the average observed value at 1990. Observed global annual temperature change, relative to 1961–1990, is shown as black squares (NASA (updated from Hansen et al., 2010; data available at; NOAA (updated from Smith et al., 2008; data available at; and the UK Hadley Centre (Morice et al., 2012; data available at reanalyses). Whiskers indicate the 90% uncertainty range of the Morice et al. (2012) dataset from measurement and sampling, bias and coverage (see Appendix for methods). The coloured shading shows the projected range of global annual mean near surface temperature change from 1990 to 2015 for models used in FAR (Scenario D and business-as-usual), SAR (IS92c/1.5 and IS92e/4.5), TAR (full range of TAR Figure 9.13(b) based on the GFDL_R15_a and DOE PCM parameter settings), and AR4 (A1B and A1T). The 90% uncertainty estimate due to observational uncertainty and internal variability based on the HadCRUT4 temperature data for 1951-1980 is depicted by the grey shading. Moreover, the publication years of the assessment reports and the scenario design are shown.
With the observed temperature anomaly for the past dozen years trending to the lower bound of the IPCC models, why do governments around the world continue to fund the climate scientists who make inaccurate alarmist predictions?

I've posted the full IPCC AR5 draft report to Scribd (h/t: Alec Rawls of

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