Wednesday, April 18, 2012

Poll: Richard Mourdock takes +6% from Dick Lugar

The Mourdock campaign trumpeted the results of their latest internal poll which shows Richard Mourdock (R-IN) with 42% to incumbent Dick Lugar's (R-IN) 41% with a +/-4.9% confidence interval. The poll was conducted by McLaughlin & Associates. A sample of 400 likely Republican primary election voters in Indiana were interviewed for the poll on April 16-17.

This poll showed that Mourdock has improved his position over where he polled in January. His favorable rating, 46%, went up 11 points from where it stood three months ago while Lugar's favorable number dropped 10 points to 47%.

The most impressive aspect of the poll was where Richard Mourdock found his new support. As the chart below illustrates, Mourdock took his +6 point gain right out of Dick Lugar's hide:

What those numbers show is that there's a stream of voters migrating from Dick Lugar possibly through "undecided" and ultimately to Richard Mourdock. Because Mourdock's +6 and Lugar's -7 are both greater than the +/-4.9 margin of error, this poll shows that Mourdock has the momentum.

Going forward the challenge will be for Mourdock to maintain that momentum through the May 8th primary. Meanwhile, HotAir notes that Dick Lugar has his work cut out for him:
They had a debate and Mourdock’s suddenly outraising the incumbent and even establishment conservative magazines like National Review are ready to trade Lugar in for new blood. What’s a six-term incumbent who’s in trouble to do? Why, call in the big guns
And those big guns are Indiana Gov. Mitch Daniels (R-IN) and Sen. John McCain (R-AZ). Daniels I understand, but McCain seems like a tone-deaf choice. Seriously, if you're bringing in McCain to shore up your position with, presumably, conservative Republican primary voters, well, why not invite Arlen Specter, too?

Update: Hey, Smitty, thanks for the link from your post about Mitch Daniels!

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